A Little Known Yet Very Popular American Presidential Tradition 1

A Little Known Yet Very Popular American Presidential Tradition
By Mike Guadagnino

The conclusion of yet another Presidential election and American patterns have not changed.  Since the election of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933, the American electorate has only voted out an incumbent President twice.  Time after time Americans do not fire incumbent Presidents, regardless of economic or foreign policy conditions.  It is understood at times when America is enjoying of peace and prosperity, such as the Presidencies of Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton, there is very little challenge against their re-election.

This isn’t a commentary on the campaigns of Mitt Romney or of President Obama, rather a consistent pattern in the United States of not removing a President.  This is an 80 year sample of modern Presidential voting trends; and since there won’t be another re-election campaign until at least 2020 this can be considered an almost 90 year trend.  There is one wild card in this analysis, the campaign of President Ford.  Other than President Jimmy Carter and President George H.W. Bush, every other President has been re-elected.

The re-election campaign of Jimmy Carter:  President Carter governed during the back end of one of the most difficult periods in America’s 20th century.  In the decade prior to his election America was involved in the quagmire of the Vietnam War, a counter-culture resistance to the LBJ and Nixon administrations, the Watergate scandal, gasoline shortages, the resignation of a Vice-President and the resignation of the President.  Jimmy Carter campaigned to bring civility and calmness to America.  Unfortunately, his presidency was mired in double digit inflation, two recessions and many difficulties abroad.  President Carter also had difficulty getting along with the House of Representatives and the Senate who were of his same party.

His re-election started on the wrong foot by a challenge from within his own party.  Senator Edward Kennedy was well organized, well funded and ran a tough campaign against the incumbent.  President Carter won the Democratic primary but by the time the re-election campaign geared up to go against the Republican challenger, President Carter was weakened.

The re-election campaign of George H.W. Bush:  President Bush was elected with the promise that his presidency would be a “third Reagan Presidency”.  George Bush was fortunate to come in at a time of an expanding economy and the eventual end to the cold war.  At the mid-term of his presidency, President Bush was also polled as one of the more popular Presidents with the conclusion of Operation Desert Storm.  President Bush though broke one of his biggest promises, and that was “I will not raise taxes”.  Towards the end of his term the economy went into a recession.

President Bush’s re-election bid was similar to that of President Carter’s re-election, facing a very stiff challenge from Pat Buchanan.  Although Mr. Buchanan wasn’t as funded or held the same name recognition as Ted Kennedy, he ran a grueling campaign against President Bush.  The Buchanan campaign ran television commercials showing candidate Bush speaking during his first election, promising not to raise taxes.  The commercial then contrasted that against President Bush raising taxes.  Mr. Buchanan, besides bringing attention to the broken promise, linked the tax hike to the recession.  Like President Carter, by the time President Bush faced his Democratic challenger, he was a weakened candidate.

The case of the Wild Card campaign.  President Ford is not considered to have run an incumbent re-election campaign, because he was never elected President, in fact he was never elected Vice-President.  Rather this Republican’s House minority leader was appointed first to Vice-President after the resignation of Spiro Agnew, and then President with the resignation of President Nixon.  He did run a campaign in 1976, but it wasn’t a re-election campaign as he wasn’t elected prior.  In 1976 he faced a challenge from former Governor Ronald Reagan.  After a difficult primary campaign, he too came out of it a weakened candidate and lost his election campaign.

Both Presidents Carter and Bush faced something that Presidents Obama, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower, Truman and Roosevelt did not have to face, and that was a direct punishing challenge from within their own party.  Both of these Presidents served during a time of economic despair, but so did Obama and Roosevelt; and Nixon served during a period of an unpopular war.  Is the challenge from within the party the reason for the re-election loss?  Or is it that Americans want a challenger to make a compelling argument as to why they elected the wrong person four years earlier, and that they should cast their vote now to replace that President?

Whatever the reason, modern Americans do not readily remove a sitting President.  Strategies for political challenges against incumbent Presidents need to consider this American voting tradition when approaching campaigns.  Not again until 2020 will we once again see if America continues this voting trend or begins a new voting tradition.

Mike Guadagnino is best known as Oakland’s Recreation Commission Chairman or as a Doctor of Chiropractic practicing in Ramsey.  Mike is also an American Presidential history buff and student of election campaign mechanics.